Week Ahead: US government shutdown, NFP & Gold in focus

• Global stocks rise on Fed cut bets despite caution
• US government shutdown headed for potential shutdown
• Gold hits fresh all-time high, up 45% year-to-date
• Major risk event will be Friday’s NFP report

Global equities have kicked off the week on a positive note despite growing fears around a potential US government shutdown. European shares flashed green while US equity futures are pointing to a positive open.

There is a strong sense of caution in the air, but markets seem to be riding on bets around further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. 

Top congressional leaders are set to meet with President Donald Trump on Monday before the federal funding runs out. Nevertheless, equities could take a hit if a government shutdown becomes reality on the 1st of October as investors rush to safe-haven destinations.

Speaking of safe havens, gold is already stealing the spotlight.

The precious metal surged to a fresh all-time high on Thursday morning – pushing 2025 gains to 45%. Although gold is trading above the psychological $3800 level, technical indicators are signalling a potential correction down the road. Silver is also on a tear, surging to its highest since 2011 with year-to-date gains surpassing 60% amid a weaker dollar.

A couple of central bankers will be under the spotlight on Friday, but the main attraction will be the September US jobs report.

If a US government shutdown becomes reality, this could delay the NFP report. The US economy is expected to have created 50,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.3%.

Another weak figure could reinforce bets around the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in October and potentially December. Such an outcome may support equities, boost gold, while weakening the dollar.