Big tech earnings & ECB decision in focus
21st July
Key takeaways
Chipmakers propel global stocks on Tuesday
ECB widely expected to leave rates unchanged
Gold stuck near $4000 level while oil up 25% in July
Lukman Otunuga
Head of Market Research
Chipmakers roared back to life on Tuesday, propelling global stocks higher.
However, with Brent up roughly 25% this month and war raging near the Strait of Hormuz, the rally is built on shaky foundations.
Alphabet and Tesla kick off Big Tech earnings Wednesday after the close, with AI hyperscalers under pressure to justify record capex.
Another strong Alphabet quarter is expected, but results could be overshadowed by a brutal week for risk appetite as investors juggle war headlines and rate-hike bets.
The ECB meets on Thursday with Christine Lagarde holding a press conference.
Markets widely expect rates to remain unchanged as June’s inflation data cooled the urgency for hawks to act.
But buoyant energy prices boosted by the Iran conflict may keep the door open to another hike later in 2026.
Lagarde has stayed hawkish even during oil's calmer stretches, and with energy prices elevated again, the Governing Council has little room to sound dovish.
A hawkish ECB hold may inject EURUSD bulls with fresh inspiration to target 1.1500.
Gold is stuck near nine-month lows around $4,000-4,030 an ounce
even as the US-Iran war grinds
into its tenth day Trump vows Iran will pay for killing three US troops.
Traders are pricing roughly a 75%
chance of a Fed hike by September, and a stronger dollar plus higher yields are
making zero-yield bullion hard to hold.
$4,000 remains a key
psychological level. If bulls keep defending this support, $4100 and $4200 are
the next major checkpoints. Weakness below $4000 may open a path toward $3,950
and $3,900.
Oil has had a wild ride. Brent has surged roughly 25% this month - its highest since June,
, after a fragile ceasefire collapsed and Iran began targeting tankers and infrastructure near the Strait of Hormuz.
A Kuwaiti oil facility and vessels transiting Hormuz have been hit, and Trump has threatened to strike Iranian infrastructure directly.
With roughly 20% of global oil flows passing through the strait, any further escalation keeps a hefty risk premium, resulting in elevated oil prices through the summer.
Frequently asked questions
Markets widely expect interest rates to be left unchanged but any clues on future policy moves could move the euro.
Alphabet and Tesla kick off big tech earnings on Wednesday 22nd July after US markets close.
Any further escalation keeps a hefty risk premium, resulting in elevated oil prices through the summer.
