- Brent jumps almost 10% this week
- Fading hopes around peace deal keep oil benchmarks elevated
- OECDcut global growth forecasts amid geopolitical tensions
- Brent bullish with next key level at $100
Brent oil has rallied 8% this week!
AND
Gained 63% year-to-date…
Note: Brent hit a 2026 high at $126.4 on 30th April.
WHY IS OIL RALLYING
Let's be real…nobody has a clue what's happening with US-Iran talks.
Mixed signals. Contradictory headlines. Diplomats saying one thing, generals doing another.
But one thing is clear.
The extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off 20% of the world’s oil supply from global markets.
This shortfall has boosted oil benchmarks, with the global economy absorbing the negative shocks.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?
Consumer pain: A sustained rise in oil prices is bad news for consumers as the cost of petrol and domestic energy bills increases.
The OECD just this morning cut its global growth outlook – due to the US-Iran war.
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS –
BULLISH: An extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz may intensify negative supply shocks. This could push both Crude and Brent back above $100.
BEARISH: Easing tensions or the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz may cool supple-side fears. Weakness below the $100 level could spark a bearish move toward $90 and $84 for Brent and WTI.