Commodity Spotlight - Brent Crude
9th September
Key takeaways
Brent has broken decisively above $100 a barrel for the first time since July, and this time the move is holding.
Oil is up over 60% year-to-date, adding roughly $40 to the barrel price since January.
The key level to watch: hold above $100 targets $110; a slide below $98.50 risks $90.
Lukman Otunuga
Head of Market Research
Nobody asked about oil prices.
Your petrol receipt is about to answer anyway.
Brent just crossed $100 a barrel (BBG price) for the first time since July. The last time it tried this, the move folded within a day.
This time feels different.
On the geopolitical front: tankers are being taken out of action, tensions are sizzling and oil benchmarks are up over 60% YTD.
Every $10 move in oil adds roughly 7p to a litre of petrol in the UK.
Oil's added about $40 since January. Do the maths.
Are we looking at a genuine breakout, or a repeat of July's one-day wonder?
A solid daily close above $100 could confirm this isn't just a headline spike, opening the door toward $110.
On the flip side, a fade back below $98.50 would suggest today's move was adrenaline, not conviction, risking a slide back toward $90.
Trade Setups
Bullish Scenario
• Entry: $100.00
• Target: $110.00
• Trigger: Clean break and daily close above resistance
Bearish Scenario
• Entry: $98.50
• Target: $90.00
• Trigger: Rejection and close back below the $100 psychological level
Key Details
• Strategy: Breakout Trading
• Indicators: Psychological level ($100)
• Risk/Reward: 1:2
• Trade Horizon: Swing (EOM expiry)
Frequently asked questions
Escalating Iran tensions - tankers taken out of action, rising geopolitical risk in the Gulf.
Every $10 move in oil adds roughly 5-6p to a litre of UK petrol.
That move faded within a day. This time, $100 is holding, not just spiking.
