Earnings Preview: SpaceX's Hype Meets Reality
3rd August 2026
Key takeaways
SpaceX down 20% from IPO prices and 50% below ATH.
SpaceX reports its first-ever quarterly results as a public company on Tuesday 4th August.
Markets are forecasting a 13% move, either up or down, in SpaceX stock post-earnings.
Lukman Otunuga
Senior Market Analyst
SpaceX is back in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons.
Its shares tumbled to a record low last Friday, down 20% from the $135 IPO price and 50% below the all-time high of $225.6!
The company is about to report earnings for the first time as a public company.
Musk's fortune has fallen back to pre-IPO levels while short sellers are piling in harder against SpaceX than against Tesla. And on Thursday, one of the largest share unlocks in market history hits the tape!
When will earnings be published?
SpaceX reports its first-ever quarterly results as a public company on Tuesday, August 4, after US market close.
Market expectations
The Aerospace company is forecast to report a net loss of $0.25 per share compared to the loss of $1.27 per share in the previous quarter (Q1).
Quarterly revenues are seen rising to $6.9 billion from $4.7 billion in the prior quarter – but a net loss of $2 billion is projected.
What to watch out for
Forget the top-line numbers, this report is about where the money's going.
- Investors want detail on capital allocation toward Starship and SpaceX's space data-centre ambitions, not just revenue.
- Expect questions on whether SpaceX is turning away satellite operators seeking Falcon 9 launches beyond 2028, an early signal of just how hard the company is betting on Starship's success.
- Watch too for updates on Starlink subscriber growth, Colossus compute revenue, and the timeline for commercial payload missions expected to begin in the second half of the year.
The elephant in the room: Starship's heat shield tiles showed cracking and damage after its 13th test flight on July 24. Former NASA researchers have flagged this as a potential roadblock to the rapid reusability SpaceX's entire economic model depends on.
How will SpaceX react to earnings?
Markets are forecasting a 13% move, either Up or Down, for SpaceX stocks post earnings.
That volatility isn't surprising given the setup: short interest has surged to 219.3 million shares, about 34% of the public float, worth $24.6 billion in bearish bets, more than the short position against Tesla.
Nearly 1 billion shares unlocked
This is where it gets genuinely unusual.
Two days after earnings, on August 6, up to 911.5 million shares worth as much as $120 billion become eligible for sale as the IPO lock-up expires.
That's not a normal earnings reaction setup; it's earnings plus a supply shock, back to back.
- A strong beat with reassuring guidance on AI and Starship could spark a short squeeze.
- A disappointing report, paired with the looming unlock, could send shares sharply lower with very little support underneath.
Technical picture
SPCX remains in a firmly bearish trend.
The stock's all-time intraday low sits at $107.01. Immediate resistance is clustered at $111–$115, where a stack of moving averages sits overhead.
A break above that zone would be the first real technical sign that bulls are attempting a comeback. Below $107, there's little established support, this is uncharted territory since the IPO.
- Bull case: A hold above $115 opens the door toward the $135 IPO price as a psychological target.
- Bear case: A break below $107 has no historical support to lean on, leaving the door open toward the $75 level flagged by Phillip Securities.
Frequently asked questions
The company shares have slipped over 20% from its IPO prices of $135.
Markets are forecasting a 13% move, either up or down, for SpaceX stocks post-earnings.
