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    EURUSD tests key breakout level

    4th August 2026

    • Takeaways
    • Analysis
    • FAQs

    Key takeaways

    1. EURUSD rebounds from 1.1500 support

    2. Markets price 65% chance of Fed hike in September

    3. Key US NFP could trigger breakout

    Lukman Otunuga

    Lukman Otunuga

    Head of Market Research

    Meet the analyst

    EURUSD rebounded from 1.1500 as traders reassessed the outlook for Fed policy.

    • Markets price around a 65% chance of a September rate hike.

    • Fed official John Williams said inflation should ease in the second half of the year.

    • Today’s JOLTS and US trade data may decide whether the rebound continues.

    What next?

    Weak US data could help EURUSD break above resistance. Strong figures may trigger a pullback.


    EURUSD


    What could move the asset:


    US data, Fed expectations and the test of 1.1558.


    Bullish Factors


    Weak US data

    Lower Fed hike expectations

    Break above 1.1558


    Bearish Factors


    Strong US data

    Renewed dollar demand

    Rejection from 1.1558

    Technicals

    EURUSD is testing 1.1558, where the descending trendline meets the recovery channel.

    A breakout may open 1.1603–1.1662. Rejection could return the pair toward 1.1480.

    Key Levels

    • R1: 1.1558
    • R2: 1.1603
    • R3: 1.1662

    • S1: 1.1480
    • S2: 1.1431
    • S3: 1.1373

    • Market Bias: Neutral below 1.1558
    • Bullish Target: 1.1603–1.1662
    • Bearish Target: 1.1431–1.1373

    Frequently asked questions

    The major currency pair has gained 0.2% this month.

    Geopolitical tensions and key US data including the NFP on Friday.

    1.1480, 1.1500 & 1.1558

    ForexEURArticle

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