EURUSD tests key breakout level
4th August 2026
Key takeaways
EURUSD rebounds from 1.1500 support
Markets price 65% chance of Fed hike in September
Key US NFP could trigger breakout
Lukman Otunuga
Head of Market Research
EURUSD rebounded from 1.1500 as traders reassessed the outlook for Fed policy.
• Markets price around a 65% chance of a September rate hike.
• Fed official John Williams said inflation should ease in the second half of the year.
• Today’s JOLTS and US trade data may decide whether the rebound continues.
What next?
Weak US data could help EURUSD break above resistance. Strong figures may trigger a pullback.
EURUSD
What could move the asset:
US data, Fed expectations and the test of 1.1558.
Bullish Factors
Weak US data
Lower Fed hike expectations
Break above 1.1558
Bearish Factors
Strong US data
Renewed dollar demand
Rejection from 1.1558
Technicals
EURUSD is testing 1.1558, where the descending trendline meets the recovery channel.
A breakout may open 1.1603–1.1662. Rejection could return the pair toward 1.1480.
Key Levels
- R1: 1.1558
- R2: 1.1603
- R3: 1.1662
- S1: 1.1480
- S2: 1.1431
- S3: 1.1373
- Market Bias: Neutral below 1.1558
- Bullish Target: 1.1603–1.1662
- Bearish Target: 1.1431–1.1373
Frequently asked questions
The major currency pair has gained 0.2% this month.
Geopolitical tensions and key US data including the NFP on Friday.
1.1480, 1.1500 & 1.1558