- US-Israel strikes kill Iran’s supreme leader
- Oil benchmarks surge over 10% on Sunday open
- Safe-haven assets Gold/Silver also gap higher
- Risk-off may be name of game ahead of packed week
- Cheat sheet of potential winners and losers
Over the weekend, US–Israel strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – a dangerous turning point in an already distressed region.
Tehran fired back at Israel and hit US bases across the Gulf.
This explosive development came as a surprise, given there was an agreement to hold further talks over the coming weeks.
With missiles still flying, the risk of a full-blown regional escalation is growing by the minute.
And this was reflected on Sunday when markets opened with sharp gaps from Friday’s close amid the chaos.
- BRENT: ↑ 8%
- WTI: ↑7%
- XAUUSD: ↑2%
- XAGUSD: ↑1%
Note: Prices shown represent the gap from Friday’s close.
Here’s a cheat sheet of assets that could win/lose:
POTENTIAL WINNERS:
- VIX (Volatility Index)
The primary beneficiary as market fear spikes; prices may surge as investors hedge against a wider regional conflict.
- Safe-haven assets – (XAUUSD, XAGUSD, JPY, CHF, USD)
As risk aversion intensifies, investors may rush to safe-haven destinations.
- Oil benchmarks – (WTI, Brent)
The US-Israeli war against Iran has plunged the global crude market into turmoil, with the effective closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz fuelling supply side fears.
POTENTIAL LOSERS:
- Global equities – (CN50, EU50, UK100, US500, NAS100, US30)
As investors scramble for safety amid the chaos, global equities may face fresh selling pressure.
- Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoins
Overall uncertainty and caution may repel investors from cryptos in favour of precious metals or safe-haven FX currencies.
There have been reports that Trump intends to engage in new talks with Iran’s new leadership.
Nevertheless, the Iran crisis has entered a new phase which could mean heightened levels of volatility over the next few days to weeks.
And with volatility comes opportunity.
Don’t miss out.