- US-Iran peace talks fail
- Oil benchmarks rally on supply fears
- Dollar gains amid safe-haven flows
- US30 may be rocked by big bank earnings
- Time for gold to resume decline?
Over the weekend, US-Iran peace talks concluded without a resolution after 21 hours of negotiations.
Both sides were unable to agree on issues like Iran’s nuclear program or its control of the Strait of Hormuz.
This failure is poised to erode market sentiment and boost oil benchmarks amid rising geopolitical risk premiums.
And such was reflected on Sunday when markets opened with sharp gaps from Friday’s close.
- WTI: ↑ 10%
- BRENT: ↑ 8%
- USDInd: ↑ 1%
- XAUUSD: ↓ 2%
- XAGUSD: ↓ 4%
Note: Gains shown represent the gap from Friday’s close.
What next?
The failure to reach a deal represents a major element of uncertainty for markets.
However, Iran’s foreign ministry left the door open to further talks, so all is not lost.
This could translate into heightened volatility across global markets due to the fragile and sensitive sentiment.
Update on the Hormuz
Shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz operated at minimal levels on Sunday before Trump vowed to begin a full naval blockage on Monday.
A full blockade of the strait will add further pressure to global oil markets.
Note: US to impose Iran shipping blockade from 10 a.m. ET Monday.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
US30 braces for big bank earnings
DID YOU KNOW:
FXTM’s US30 has gained over 3% since the start of April.
WHY?
Last week, US equities saw their biggest weekly gain in 2026 as investors evaluated economic data and a fragile truce between US-Iran.
HOWEVER
Recent gains may be relinquished due to weekend talks ending without a deal.
WHAT COULD MOVE US30 THIS WEEK?
All eyes will be on big bank earnings and speeches by Fed officials.
Q1 earnings season unofficially kicks off on Monday, led by the biggest US banks.
- Monday 13th: Goldman Sachs
- Tuesday 14th: JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Blackrock
- Wednesday 15th: Bank of America
US banks are expected to post record trading revenues thanks to conflict-induced market volatility.
Note: Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan account for almost 16% of the US30 weight.
- Markets are forecasting a 2.8% move, either Up or Down, for Goldman Sachs stocks post-earnings.
- Markets are forecasting a 3.1% move, either Up or Down, for JPMorgan Chase stocks post-earnings
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS
BULLISH: A solid move above 48,000 may trigger an incline toward 49,000 and 50,000.
BEARISH: Weakness below 48,000 could see a move toward the 200-day SMA at 47,000 and 46,000.
