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    NFP Flop, US CPI & Gold In Focus

    10th August 2026

    • Takeaways
    • Analysis
    • FAQs

    Key takeaways

    1. Payrolls fell 23,000 in July — a 100k+ miss including revisions.

    2. September hike odds crashed to ~44%, down from over 50%.

    3. Gold's up ~7% this week, trading north of $4,340.

    Lukman Otunuga

    Lukman Otunuga

    Head of Market Research

    Meet the analyst

    Markets are throwing a party, and Friday's jobs disaster is the guest of honour.

    Equities are near record highs. Asian markets flashed green overnight, European markets opened higher, and US futures are pointing the same way - all because a horrendous jobs report just gutted Fed rate-hike bets.

    Here's why: payrolls fell 23,000 in July, with a brutal 103,000 in downward revisions stacked on top of the prior two months. That's nowhere near the 80,000 gain economists expected. Traders didn't hesitate - hike odds for September have collapsed to roughly 44%, down from over half just days ago.

    Elsewhere, oil is doing its own thing.

    Crude edged higher despite Iran calling its Hormuz shipping deal with Oman "close to final."

    Read the fine print: Iran wants the naval blockade lifted, sanctions dropped, troops withdrawn, and reparations paid - before anything reopens. Tehran isn't even in direct talks with Washington right now. A Houthi strike on a Saudi refinery over the weekend didn't help either.

    Translation: geopolitical risk isn't fading; it's multiplying - and that keeps a floor under oil, and under inflation fears.

    Wednesday decides who's right. July's CPI print could make or break the Fed's next move. Estimates point to headline inflation running around 3.4% year-on-year, with core near 2.4% - the coolest pace since early 2021. Cool the number further, and rate-cut bets extend. Come in hot, and the September hike conversation is back on the table fast.

    Gold's not waiting to find out.

    It's just had its best week since January, up roughly 7% and trading north of $4,340 - powered by a weaker dollar, fading hike bets, and a clean break above resistance. All eyes are now on whether it can close the week above the 100-day moving average at $4,390, with the 200-day at $4,490 the next real test. Fair warning: momentum indicators are flashing overbought, so don't be shocked by a pause along the way.

    Frequently asked questions

    Iran's "final stage" deal talks hide tough demands - sanctions relief, troop withdrawal, reparations. Risk premium stays.


    100-day SMA at $4,390. Break it; $4,490 is next.

    Cool print = cut bets grow. Hot print = hike talk returns.

    IndicesXAUUSDArticle

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