- Whisper number for May's NFP is 89,000
- Markets itching for fresh directional catalyst
- NFP expected to trigger heightened moves across FX, equities and indices
- Solid report may give Fed more room to hike rates
89,000.
That’s the number on the streets for May’s jobs print.
Close enough to the 85,000 estimate to feel comfortable, but strong enough to push the three-month hiring average to its highest in over a year.
Bloomberg Economics is even more bullish, pencilling in 95,000.
Robust March. Steady April. May could confirm this is not a blip but a trend.
WHY SHOULD YOU CARE?
Markets are itching for a fresh catalyst.
FX markets remain in tight ranges, commodities are choppy and equities are lacking oomph.
At the same time, May’s non-farm payrolls will provide the final update on the US labor market before Kevin Warsh attends his first policy meeting.
A solid report may give the Fed more room to hike rates in the face of conflict induced inflation.
This may inject dollar bulls with fresh confidence – roiling FX, commodity and even crypto markets.
The same can be said vice versa.
NFP reaction cheat sheet - 6 hours post-release
- EURUSD: ↑ 0.5 % or ↓ 0.3%
- GBPUSD: ↑ 0.3 % or ↓ 0.2%
- USDJPY: ↑ 0.5 % or ↓ 0.7%
- USDInd: ↑ 0.3 % or ↓ 0.4%
- US500: ↑ 0.5 % or ↓ 1.1%
- NAS100: ↑ 1.1% or ↓ 1.5%
- XAUUSD: ↑ 1.1 % or ↓ 0.5%
- XAGUSD: ↑ 1.6 % or ↓ 0.5%