- Silver hits fresh all-time high at $84, ↑ 175% YTD
- Gold also hits records before giving back gains
- US data and geopolitics in focus
- Will US500 experience Santa Rally this week?
Silver surged roughly 10% last Friday and jumped over 5% this morning to hit a fresh all-time high!
However, prices later tumbled almost 15% from as traders took profit.
Nevertheless, silver has gained as much as 175% YTD and is on track for its best annual performance since 1979.
WHY IS SILVER RALLYING?
- Silver has been boosted by elevated central bank purchases, ETF inflows, lower US interest rates and a weaker dollar.
- BUT the primary driver remains soaring industrial demand in the face of persistent supply deficits.
- MOST IMPORTANTLY, China is implementing strict silver export controls from January 1st 2026. Given how China is a major global silver supplier, the reduced exports could lead to supply shocks.
WHAT COULD MOVE XAGUSD THIS WEEK?
The key question is whether silver bulls can maintain their hunger for gains in the final days of 2025.
While the fundamentals signal further upside, technical indicators such as the RSI are flashing heavily overbought conditions.
Monday 29th December
- Dallas Fed manufacturing – (15:30 PM GMT)
XAGUSD is forecasted to move 1.1% up or 0.3% down in a 6-hour window after the Dallas Fed manufacturing report.
- Trump expected to meet with Netanyahu on Gaza peace process (phase 2)
Tuesday 30th December
- US FOMC minutes – (19:00 PM GMT)
XAGUSD is forecasted to move 0.6% up or 0.6% down in a 6-hour window after the FOMC minutes.
Wednesday 31st December
- US initial jobless claims – (13:30 PM GMT)
XAGUSD is forecasted to move 0.9% up or 0.6% down in a 6-hour window after the US initial jobless claims.
Friday 2nd January
- US S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI – (14:45 PM GMT)
XAGUSD is forecasted to move 1.1% up or 0.8% down in a 6-hour window after the US initial jobless claims.
Note: Traders are pricing in a 20% probability that the Fed cuts rates in January 2026.
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:
BULLISH – A solid daily close above $80 may trigger an incline toward $85.
BEARISH – Weakness below $80 could see prices decline toward $77 and $72.50
US500: Will Santa rally pave the path to 7000?
DID YOU KNOW…
The US500 hit a fresh all-time high last Friday, pushing 2025 gains to 18%.
WHAT COULD MOVE US500 THIS WEEK?
In our week ahead report on Friday, 19th December – we discussed the possibility of a Santa Claus rally.
Note: This financial phenomenon is where stocks generally rally in the last week of December and the first two trading days of the new year.
And guess what, we are in the last week of December with the first two trading days of 2026 on Thursday and Friday!
Considering how the Santa Claus rally has averaged a 1.3% gain on the S&P 500 since 1950, this means that the US500 could enter 2026 hitting fresh all-time highs beyond the milestone 7000.
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:
BULLISH – A solid daily close above 6950 could trigger a rally toward 7000 and beyond.
BEARISH – Weakness below 6950 may see prices decline toward the 50-day SMA and 100-day SMA.
