SpaceX joins Nasdaq100, Fed minutes & Gold in focus

This negative sentiment sent the Nasdaq-100 tumbling over 2%, almost overshadowing the excitement around SpaceX joining the index.

Every fund that tracks the Nasdaq 100 must now purchase SpaceX shares, which is estimated to be around $4.3 billion from the QQQ ETF alone. However, history has shown us that inclusion is not automatically bullish with other key factors playing a role.

Nevertheless, this could spell fresh volatility for the Nasdaq 100 with the next major trigger for SpaceX on August 6^th when it publishes its first earnings.

On the data front, the US FOMC minutes on Wednesday may provide key insight into where rates may go in 2026. Nine of eighteen officials are already penciling in a hike before year-end. Traders want to know how many more are quietly joining the queue.

Since the June decision, we have had a soft US NFP report that has questioned the Feds ability to move along with hikes. Traders are currently pricing in a 25% chance that the US rates are increased this month with the odds of a hike by September around 70%.

Gold slipped on Tuesday, falling over 1% thanks to renewed attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite being handed multiple lifelines last week, precious metal is on the backfoot amid renewed inflation fears and rebounding oil prices.

Still, the most recent soft NFP report may cap expectations around the Fed hiking rates anytime soon. If this translates to a weaker dollar, the $4000 level may be a potential floor for gold.

The bigger question for gold's second half is whether easing geopolitical tensions can do what the soft jobs report started last week.

Should falling oil prices amid easing geopolitical risk result in cooling global inflationary pressures, this could reduce the urgency for central banks to tighten. That would provide a tailwind for zero-yielding gold.

• Should $4,100/oz prove reliable support, gold may rebound back toward $4,200 and $4,335 per ounce.

• Weakness below $4,100/oz could trigger a selloff back toward $4,000 the $3,900–$3,800 per ounce support area.