Week Ahead: NAS100 set for fresh pain?

• NAS100 ↓ 1% this week, headed for second weekly loss
• Tesla earnings + US CPI + US-China tensions = volatility
• NAS100 forecasted to move ↑ 1.2% or ↓ 0.8% post CPI
• Tesla makes up 4.5% of NAS100 weight
• Technical levels: 47000, 46300 & 45800

It’s been another turbulent week for markets amid renewed US-China trade tensions, the government shutdown and fears surrounding an AI bubble.

These key themes may spill over into the week ahead, which is already packed with top-tier data and corporate earnings.

All eyes will be on the delayed US inflation report for September, key China data, to big tech earnings and speeches by financial heavyweights:

Monday, 20th October

• CN50: China GDP, retail sales, loan prime rates, industrial production, unemployment, China’s Fourth Plenum
• NZD: New Zealand CPI
• USDInd: US Conference Board leading index
• President Donald Trump to host Australian Prime Minister

Tuesday, 21st October   

• CAD: Canada CPI
• NZD: New Zealand trade
• EUR: ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks 
• TWN: Taiwan export orders
• US500: Netflix earnings

Wednesday, 22nd October

• JPY: Japan trade
• ZAR: South Africa CPI
• EUR: ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
• UK100: UK CPI, Barclays earnings
• NAS100: Tesla earnings

Thursday, 23rd October

• CAD: Canada retail sales
• EUR: Eurozone consumer confidence
• TWN: Taiwan industrial production
• NAS100: US initial jobless claims, existing home sales

Friday, 24th October

• EUR: Eurozone HCOB manufacturing PMI
• GER40: Germany HCOB manufacturing PMI
• JPY: Japan CPI, S&P Global manufacturing PMI
• UK100: UK retail sales, S&P Global manufacturing PMI
• NAS100: US CPI, new home sales, S&P Global manufacturing PMI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment

Our attention lands on FXTM’s NAS100, which has struggled to nurse heavy wounds inflicted by last Friday’s ferocious selloff.

The index is headed for another weekly loss, shedding almost 1% since Monday. Still, key support can be found at 24,000 and resistance at 25,200.

More volatility could be on the horizon, and here are 4 reasons why:

1) US-China trade war

The United States and China are locked in an intense battle of finger pointing as trade relations rapidly deteriorate.

Fresh levies of 100% on Chinese goods are set to take effect on November 1st – in roughly two weeks. This negative development may sap investor confidence and fuel fears of a negative shock to the global economy. If this triggers risk aversion, the NAS100 could take a major hit.

2) Big tech earnings – Tesla

Tesla kicks off big tech earnings on Wednesday 22nd October after US markets close. Its shares have slipped by almost 4% this month, dragging 2025 gains back down to 6%. The key question is whether Tesla will publish strong quarterly results after posting record deliveries in Q3.

Note: Tesla makes up roughly 4.5% of the NAS100 weight with the stock forecasted to move 6.1% up or down post earnings.

3) Delayed US September CPI report

The delayed US CPI report may heavily influence Fed cut expectations for the rest of 2025.

Markets are forecasting:

• CPI year-on-year (September 2025 vs. September 2024) to rise 3.1% from 2.9% in the prior month.
• Core CPI year-on-year to - unchanged at 3.1%.
• CPI month-on-month (September 2025 vs August 2025) - unchanged at 0.4%.
• Core CPI month-on-month – unchanged at 0.3%.

Signs of rising inflation pressures may shave bets around the Fed cutting interest rates.

NAS100 is forecast to move 1.2% up or 0.8% down in a 6-hour window after the US CPI report.

4) Technical forces

The NAS100 is under pressure on the daily charts with prices approaching the 50-day SMA.

A solid breakdown and daily close below 24,000 may open a path toward the 100-day SMA at 23,330 and 23,000.

Should 24,000 prove reliable support, this may trigger a rebound back toward 24,500 and 25,200.