Bitcoin has taken a beating this year, recently tumbling to its lowest level since September 2024 near $58,000.
From its all-time high of $126,000 last October, it has lost over 50% - hammered by ETF outflows, stalled crypto regulation and a hawkish Fed showing no signs of blinking.
Note: Bitcoin has shed over 30% year-to-date.
The week ahead is decisive for the OG crypto.
Either a bottom is forming here or there's more pain to come as prices linger below $60,000.
Monday, 29th June
• EUR: Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence
• JPY: Japan retail sales
• SG20: Spain CPI
• The ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra
Tuesday, 30th June
• AUD: Australia RBA meeting minutes, private sector credit
• CNY: China manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI
• EUR: Germany CPI, unemployment
• JPY: Japan unemployment, industrial production, housing starts
• GBP: UK GDP
Wednesday, 1st July
• CNY: China RatingDog manufacturing PMI
• EUR: Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, CPI, ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
• JPY: Japan Tankan corporate sentiment index, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
• GBP: UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speech
• USD: US ADP employment, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speech
Thursday, 2nd July
• EUR: Eurozone unemployment
• CHF: Switzerland CPI
• USD: US nonfarm payrolls, initial jobless claims
Friday, 3rd July
• CNY: China RatingDog services PMI
• EUR: Eurozone S&P Global Services PMI
• US markets closed for Independence Day holiday
Here are 3 reasons why Bitcoin could see big swings in the week ahead:
1) US June NFP report
The June employment report drops next week with early estimates pointing to a modest slowdown from May's 172,000 payroll gain with the jobless rate expected to hold at 4.3%.
Note: US economy is expected to have created 115,000 jobs in June.
One wildcard: World Cup-related hiring could give leisure and hospitality an unseasonably strong boost, nudging the headline number higher than expected.
For Bitcoin, the logic is simple.
Another strong jobs report reinforces the case for higher US rates and crypto hates high rates. A softer number gives markets room to breathe.
· Strong jobs = Fed stays hawkish = Bitcoin under pressure.
· Weak jobs = rate hike fears ease = crypto gets relief.
2) The CLARITY Act
The CLARITY Act would permanently cement Bitcoin's status as a digital commodity, shielding it from SEC oversight and handing regulatory control to the CFTC.
For crypto, it's the single most important piece of legislation in years.
However, it’s slipping away with the White House originally targeting July 4 for Senate passage.
That deadline will most likely be missed. If the bill doesn't clear before the August recess, the next realistic windows are a narrow September slot or the post-election lame-duck session where major deals are possible but rare.
Prediction markets have priced a 44% chance that the deal will be signed into law this year.
Every week of delay is a drip of uncertainty onto an already fragile market.
3) Technical forces
Bitcoin remains firmly bearish on the daily chart, with prices struggling to hold above $60,000 - a key psychological level that has now flipped from support to resistance.
- Bear case: Sustained weakness below $60,000 opens the door toward $50,000 and $45,000.
- Bull case: A reclaim of $60,000 could see prices retest $65,000, with the 50-day SMA at $70,000 as the next major target
