Week Ahead: CHINAH set for fresh multi-year highs?

• FXTM’s CHINAH ↑ 27% YTD, trading 5% away from 2025 high
• China tech earnings + key data = volatility
• Tencent + JD.com = over 10% of CHINAH weight
• Prices remain trapped within wide range – (8680 – 9800)
• Key technical levels: 9515, 50 SMA and 100 SMA

Another round of corporate earnings, US political risk and key data could spark fresh trading opportunities in the week ahead.

Results from the largest companies in China may trigger volatility on FXTM’s CHINAH which is trading 5% away from 2025 highs…

Note: CHINAH tracks the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index

Sunday, 9th November

• CHINAH: China PPI, CPI

Monday, 10th November

• JP225: Japan leading index, Bank of Japan meeting minutes
• AUD: RBA Deputy Governor Andrew speech

Tuesday, 11th November

• AUD: Australia Westpac consumer confidence, NAB business confidence
• GER40: Germany ZEW survey expectations
• ZAR: South Africa manufacturing production
• GBP: UK jobless claims, unemployment
• China holds its annual Singles’ Day shopping festival

Wednesday, 12th November

• GER40: Germany CPI
• US500: US Treasury Market Conference, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech
• UK100: BOE chief economist Huw Pill speech
• OIL: OPEC publishes its monthly oil market report

Thursday, 13th November

• CHINAH: Tencent and JD.Com earnings
• AUD: Australia unemployment
• EUR: Eurozone industrial production
• JP225: Japan PPI
• GBP: UK GDP, industrial production

Friday, 14th November

• CHINAH: China property prices, retail sales, industrial production
• EUR: Eurozone GDP, employment
• JPY: Japan tertiary industry index
• NZD: New Zealand BusinessNZ manufacturing PMI

FXTM’s CHINAH index has been trapped within a wide range on the weekly charts with support around 8700 and resistance at 9800.

Here are 3 reasons why a major move could be on the horizon:

1) China tech giant earnings

Earnings from Chinese tech giants Tencent Holdings and JD.com could spark significant levels of volatility.

Both companies will report their latest results on Thursday, 13th November.

Tencent is the second-largest constituent of the CHINAH index, accounting for 8.4% of its weight. When adding JD.com which makes up 2%, this brings the total to just over 10%!

Given their high exposure and sensitivity to US tariffs, this may be reflected in the latest earnings release.

Note: Tencent is forecast to move 2.4% up or down post earnings. JD.com is forecast to move 6% up or down post earnings.

• A positive set of results may propel the CHINAH index higher toward 9800.
• Should earnings disappoint, this may pull prices below 9000 and lower.

2) Key economic data

Incoming data from China may provide more insight into how the US-China trade drama has impacted growth in key sectors.

China’s consumer and producer prices due over the weekend are expected to fall at a slower pace in October. Regarding China’s activity for October due on November 14th, growth momentum is expected to cool at the start of Q4 with industrial output slipping to 5.9% year-on-year from 6.5% in September.

• A weak set of reports may hit confidence in China’s economy, impacting the CHINAH as a result.
• A positive surprise may spark a wave of buying across Chinese equities, supporting the CHINAH index.

3) Technical forces

FXTM’s CHINAH has gained 27% year-to-date and is currently on breakout watch. Prices are trading around the 50-day SMA with key support at the 200-day SMA and resistance at 9800.

• A solid breakout above 9515 may encourage an incline toward the 2025 high at 9806 and higher.
• Should prices slip below the 100-day SMA at 9070, prices could slip toward 8680.