Week Ahead: NAS100 Faces Nvidia's Reality Check
21st August
Key takeaways
Nvidia reports Wednesday: $92bn revenue expected, with a 5% move priced in.
PCE lands the same day: sticky inflation could revive September hike bets.
Warsh speaks Friday: Jackson Hole may reshape the Fed outlook.
Lukman Otunuga
Head of Market Research
The final trading week of August is stacked with enough risk events to set the tone for September.
From geopolitics to the Fed’s biggest speech of 2026, July’s PCE data and earnings from the most valuable company on the planet:
Monday, 24th August
- NZD: New Zealand retail sales
- TWN: Taiwan unemployment
Tuesday, 25th August
- AUD: Australia RBA meeting minutes
- EUR: Germany GDP, IFO business climate
- TWN: Taiwan industrial production
- US500: Conference Board consumer confidence
Wednesday, 26th August
- AUD: Australia CPI, Westpac leading index
- NAS100: US consumer income, PCE price index, GDP, Nvidia earnings
Thursday, 27th August
- CNH: China industrial profits
- GER40: Germany GfK consumer confidence
- NAS100: Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.
Friday, 28th August
- EUR: Eurozone consumer confidence
- JPY: Japan unemployment, Tokyo CPI
- NAS100: US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, MNI Chicago PMI, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, US Bureau of Labor Statistics NFP revision
FXTM's NAS100 which tracks the Nasdaq 100, is up almost 16% year-to-date and sitting just 5% off its all-time high.
Whether it gets there or gets sent packing largely depends on what happens on Wednesday and Friday.
Watch out for these 3 key factors:
1. Nvidia's $5 trillion reality check
Comparing Nvidia to another chip company doesn't feel fair anymore.
At roughly $5.3 trillion, Nvidia alone is worth more than TSMC, Broadcom, Micron and Arm combined. Let that sink in.
This isn't just an earnings report. It's a quarterly health check on the entire AI investment cycle.
Nvidia reports Q2 FY2027 results Wednesday, August 26, after US markets close.
- EPS: $2.09 - nearly double last year's figure.
- Revenue: $92bn, just above Nvidia's own $91bn guidance
- Options-implied move: 5%, either direction
That swing represents roughly $265bn in market value - more than most entire S&P 500/ or Nasdaq 100 companies are worth.
2. Jackson Hole: Warsh's debut
The Kansas City Fed's annual gathering runs August 27–29 in Wyoming with all eyes on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
His keynote speech on Friday will be closely scrutinized for any clues on future Fed policy, especially after stripping forward guidance out of the Fed’s playbook.
As if that weren't enough for one Friday, the same morning brings the BLS's preliminary benchmark revision to nonfarm payrolls.
Last year's version wiped over 900,000 jobs off the total. If history repeats itself, it hands Warsh fresh ammunition mid-speech to keep rates on hold.
3. US July PCE - Wednesday August 26
The Fed’s preferred inflation lands the same day as Nvidia’s earnings.
Forecasts are split with some seeing core cooling slightly while others expect it to remain sticky around 3.4% - 3.6%.
Whichever way it breaks could support or oppose the case for a September hike just two days before Warsh takes the stage at Jackson Hole.
4.TA Overview
Frequently asked questions
It is worth more than TSMC, Broadcom, Micron and Arm combined.
Around 5%, equal to roughly $265bn in market value.
Warsh’s debut speech could signal whether the Fed holds or hikes in September.
