Week Ahead: NAS100 – rocket fuel or reality check?
3rd July 2026
Key takeaways
NAS100 ↑ 27.5% in Q2, 5% away from ATH
SpaceX joins NAS100 on Tuesday 7th July
US data and geopolitics could add to volatility
Lukman Otunuga
Head of Market Research
FXTM's NAS100 just delivered its best quarter since 2020!
Let that sink in. This index was down nearly 10% at its worst in Q1 as the US-Iran war sent oil toward triple digits and rate hike fears intensified.
Then AI took over with prices ending Q2 nearly 28% higher - sitting less than 5% from all-time highs.
In the week ahead, the index gets a new passenger — SpaceX.
Every fund tracking the Nasdaq-100's $1.4 trillion in
investment products now has no choice but to buy SpaceX shares. Estimates put
total mandatory purchases in the range of $22–$27 billion into a stock where
the public float is just 4.3%.
Forced buying. Tiny supply. You do the maths…
Beyond SpaceX, the week ahead brings more catalysts that
could determine whether the NAS100 breaks to new highs or hits a speed bump:
Sunday, 5th July
·
OIL: OPEC+ virtual meeting on oil production
Monday, 6th July
•
AUD: Australia Melbourne Institute
inflation gauge
•
EUR: Eurozone retail sales, PPI
• USD: US ISM services index, S&P Global services PMI
Tuesday, 7th July
•
CNY: China foreign reserves
•
EUR: Germany industrial production
•
GBP: BoE publishes financial stability report.
•
JPY: Japan leading index, labor cash
earnings
•
TWN: Taiwan CPI
Wednesday, 8th July
•
NZD: New Zealand rate decision
•
USD: US FOMC minutes, wholesale inventories
Thursday, 9th July
•
CNY: China PPI, CPI
•
NZD: New Zealand BusinessNZ manufacturing
PMI
• USD: US initial jobless claims, existing home sales
Friday, 10th July
•
EUR: Germany CPI
• JPY: Japan PPI
The US
economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, less than half of the 115,000
consensus.
With a
soft jobs report extinguishing fears around a Fed hike anytime soon, this could
support US equities – especially tech which remains highly sensitive to rates.
4 reasons the NAS100 could swing hard next week:
1. SpaceX joins the index…
Two things happen simultaneously on Tuesday that rarely coincide: SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100, forcing billions in mandatory passive buying and the analyst quiet period ends, unleashing 23 underwriting banks who've been silent since the $86bn IPO.
The first wave of price targets lands on Tuesday morning. Current estimates range from $115 to $401. When Goldman, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan all speak at once into a float-constrained stock, expect fireworks.
For more information on SpaceX inclusion into the Nasdaq100, join our webinar on Friday 10th July at 12pm UTC.
2. Iran peace talks - still no deal
The latest round of technical talks in Doha ended with "positive progress” and no breakthrough. The next meeting is on hold pending the funeral of Iran's former Supreme Leader.
The Strait of Hormuz is slowly reopening but far from settled with traffic trickling in.
Every headline from these talks moves oil and oil moves the inflation story that drives Fed expectations and tech valuations.
3. US economic data
After June's soft NFP print of just 57,000 jobs, markets are laser-focused on whether the US economy is cooling faster than expected. The ISM data, FOMC minutes and initial jobless claims will all be under the spotlight.
· Hot data = Fed hike fears return = NAS100 under pressure.
· Cool data = rate anxiety fades = tech gets room to breathe.
4. Technical forces
The NAS100 bullish on the daily charts with prices recently bouncing near the 50-day SMA.
· A solid breakout and daily close above the psychological 30,000 level, may open a path toward the all-time high at 30,793 and higher.
· Sustained weakness below 30,000 could see prices target 28,200 and 28,000.Body copy
Frequently asked questions
FXTM's NAS100 just delivered its best quarter since 2020, gaining nearly 28% in the second quarter of 2026.
SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100 on Tuesday 7th July.
Ongoing geopolitical risk revolving around US-Iran in addition to key US economic data may influence the NAS100.