Week Ahead: Rate-Setters Take Centre Stage!
- BoJ, BoC, BoJ, Fed, ECB and BoE seen leaving rates unchanged
- Quarterly outlook & press conferences may provide critical insight
- Central banks are likely to remain hawkish on inflation fears
- USDInd, EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD on breakout watch
Geopolitics may set the tone in the week ahead as markets monitor the Iran standoff.
Risk sentiment will be dictated by whether tensions escalate or shift toward diplomacy.
On the macro front, key central bank decisions and corporate earnings have the potential to inject financial markets with fresh volatility:
Monday, 27th April
- CN50: China industrial profits
- GER40: Germany Gfk consumer confidence
Tuesday, 28th April
- JPY: BoJ rate decision, unemployment
- US500: US Conf. Board consumer confidence
Wednesday, 29th April
- AUD: Australia CPI
- CAD: BoC rate decision
- EUR: Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence
- GER40: Germany CPI
- USDInd: FOMC rate decision
Thursday, 30th April
- CNY: China manufacturing PMIs
- EUR: ECB rate decision, Eurozone CPI, unemployment, GDP
- Germany GDP, unemployment
- JPY: Japan industrial production, retail sales
- GBP: BOE rate decision
- US500: US GDP, consumer income, initial jobless claims
Friday, 1st May
- JPY: Japan Tokyo CPI, S&P PMI
- GBP: UK S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI
- US500: US S&P Global US Manufacturing, ISM Manufacturing
The Strait of Hormuz has been largely impassable since late February, fuelling fears of inflation shocks amid triple digit oil prices.
This has prompted central banks to adopt a more hawkish stance – meaning favoring higher rates to tackle inflation.
Note: A quick central bank cheat sheet of what to expect in the week ahead. (Source Bloomberg)
Here are 5 assets that could be rocked by 5 central bank announcements:
1. BoJ meeting: USDJPY
As USDJPY lingers near the danger 160.00 intervention threshold, whispers are growing louder about a potential intervention.
The BOJ is expected to hold rates steady at 0.75% and release its quarterly outlook report. Any fresh insights offered by Governor Kazuo Ueda during the post-meeting briefing could rock the Yen.
Note: The BoJ decision is forecast to trigger upside moves of as much as 0.8%, or as much as 0.1% declines in a 6-hour window post-release.
2. BoC meeting: USDCAD
The BOC is expected to leave rates unchanged at 2.25% with Governor Tiff Macklem holding a press conference post decision.
Given how the CAD has been heavily supported by surging oil prices, this could spark discussion of a possible rate hike down the road.
Note: The BoC decision is forecast to trigger upside moves of as much as 0.2%, or as much as 0.2% declines in a 6-hour window post-release.
3. Fed meeting: USDInd
Market expectations have rapidly evaporated over the Fed cutting or raising rate in 2026 amid the confusion and uncertainty around the Iran conflict.
The Fed is expected to hold rates steady in a target range of 3.5% to 3.75% with Chair Jerome Powell holding a news conference post decision.
Note: The Fed decision is forecast to trigger upside moves of as much as 0.5%, or as much as 0.2% declines in a 6-hour window post-release.
4. ECB meeting: EURUSD
No changes are expected to interest rates when the ECB meets but any insight offered in the quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR) or President Christine Lagarde’s conference could move the EURUSD. Trader are currently pricing a 90% chance of an ECB rate cut by June.
Note: The ECB decision is forecast to trigger upside moves of as much as 0.6%, or as much as 0.1% declines in a 6-hour window post-release.
5. BoE meeting: GBPUSD
Growing concerns over rising inflation have raised the odds of a BoE rate hike in 2026. Although the BoE will leave rates unchanged in April, the meeting minutes, quarterly Monetary Policy Report and Governor Andrew Bailey’ press conference may provide critical insight.
Note: The BoE decision is forecast to trigger upside moves of as much as 0.5%, or as much as 0.4% decline in a 6-hour window post-release.