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    Week Ahead: Trump and Xi's Trillion-Dollar Handshake

    18th September

    • Takeaways
    • Analysis
    • FAQs

    Key takeaways

    1. Trump and Xi meet September 24, with a rare earth truce expiring just six weeks later on November 10.

    2. Nvidia, USDCNH, and copper are the three assets most exposed to the outcome - though not all in the way you'd expect.

    3. Copper's reaction is counterintuitive: easing tensions could actually pressure prices lower, not higher, by unwinding tariff-driven stockpiling.

    Lukman Otunuga

    Lukman Otunuga

    Head of Market Research

    Meet the analyst

    Call it the $6.5 trillion handshake.

    That's how much global industrial output the IEA says is exposed if China's rare earth truce isn't extended. It all comes down to what Trump and Xi agree in the week ahead.

    They meet at the White House September 24, round two after May’s Beijing sit-down.

    Behind the photo-op and smiles sits a real deadline: that rare earth suspension runs out November 10…just six weeks away.


    The week ahead is also packed with top-tier economic releases and speeches by various policymakers.


    Monday, 21st September

    • CNY: China loan prime rates
    • USD: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks
    • CAD: Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks


    Tuesday, 22nd September

    • EUR: Eurozone consumer confidence
    • TWN: Taiwan export orders, unemployment


    Wednesday, 23rd September

    • EUR: Eurozone S&P Global manufacturing PMI
    • GER40: Germany S&P Global/BME manufacturing PMI
    • GBP: UK S&P Global manufacturing PMI
    • US500: US S&P Global manufacturing PMI, mortgage applications


    Thursday, 24th September

    • AUD: Australia unemployment
    • CAD: Canada retail sales
    • JPY: Japan S&P Global manufacturing PMI
    • SEK: Sweden rate decision
    • CHF: Switzerland rate decision
    • Chinese President Xi Jinping - President Donald Trump talks


    Friday, 25th September

    • US500: US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speech



    Here are three assets that this may rock:


    Nvidia: China customs blocked its own importers from bringing in Nvidia's approved H200 chips. Meanwhile, Huawei just fast-tracked its rival chip roadmap by nine months. Both governments are hedging against each other before the meeting even starts. Any hint of loosened chip restrictions may support Nvidia stocks, which are up 17% YTD.


    USDCNH: The yuan's already up 4-5% against the dollar this year, Asia's best performer. Beijing's expected to let it drift modestly stronger around the summit, a goodwill gesture. USDCNH sits near 6.70 with support at 6.66.


    Copper: Copper isn't a rare earth, so don't expect it to move on the November 10 deadline directly. It moves on something bigger, whether this summit eases or escalates the broader US-China tariff standoff. Copper's trading near $6.5 and remains in a bullish trend.

    Frequently asked questions

    The IEA estimates $6.5 trillion in global industrial output is exposed if China's export truce isn't extended past November 10.

    A big chunk of copper's 2026 rally is tariff-fear stockpiling in US warehouses - a genuine de-escalation could release that trapped supply and narrow the inflated US premium.

    Any hint of loosened Chinese chip restrictions, especially after China blocked its own importers from bringing in Nvidia's approved H200 chips.

    MetalsWeek aheadArticle

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