Week Ahead: US500 braces for quadruple risk combo
24th July 2026
Key takeaways
FXTM’s US500 ↑ 8% YTD
Trading less than 3% away from ATH
Fed decision + big tech earnings + PCE = market action?
Lukman Otunuga
Head of Market Research
If you thought the last few days were eventful, buckle up – the week ahead could be one to remember.
Rate decisions, top-tier data, big tech carnage and geopolitics all collide.
Monday, 27th July
- CNY: China industrial profits
- GER40: Germany IFO business climate
- USD: US durable goods orders, Dallas Fed manufacturing
Tuesday, 28th July
- US30: Boeing earnings
- UK100: Barclays earnings
- AUD: RBA Governor Michele Bullock
Wednesday, 29th July
- AUD: Australia CPI
- CAD: Canada central bank summary of deliberations
- US500: US FOMC rate decision, retail sales, Microsoft, Meta earnings
Thursday, 30th July
- EUR: Eurozone GDP, unemployment, consumer confidence
- GER40: Germany CPI
- GBP: BoE rate decision
- US500: US GDP, PCE price index, Apple, Amazon earnings
Friday, 31st July
- CNY: China manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI
- EUR: Eurozone CPI
- JPY: BoJ rate decision, jobless rate, Tokyo CPI, industrial production, retail sales
- US500: US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, employment cost index
The spotlight’s on FXTM’s US500 which is up 8% year-to-date.
Here are 4 factors that could move it:
Fed rate decision – Wednesday 29th July
A hold is expected. The subplot is more interesting: the FOMC is genuinely split, some members eyeing a hike, others leaning toward cuts.
Add Brent near $100 and rising global yields, and the Fed's "simple" decision is anything but.
Note: the US500 has historically moved up to 1% within six hours of a Fed release. Small window, big stakes.
Big tech's big test
Alphabet and Tesla already reported and markets were unamused.
Alphabet dropped nearly 7%, wiping out roughly $265bn. The "Magnificent Seven" collectively shed $797bn in a single day, their worst since April 2025. Tesla fell over 12%.
Now Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple will be in the spotlight, into a market already nursing wounds and concerns over AI spending. Given their hefty US500 weighting, how these four perform could decide whether this is a blip or a trend.
US June PCE — Thursday July 30
The Fed's favourite inflation gauge drops Thursday.
Forecasts are mixed with some see core cooling slightly, others see it staying sticky near 3.4%–3.6%. Either way, this number may support or oppose the case for a rate hike by September.
Also worth watching: retail sales and GDP which could provide insight into the health of the US economy.
Geopolitics: still the wildcard
Oil is trading near $100 as tensions simmer in the Middle East. This may directly impact global sentiment and US rate expectations- potentially overriding every other event on this list.
TA overview
Frequently asked questions
The index is up roughly 8% year-to-date, trading 3% away from its all-time high.
Markets are only pricing a 30% chance of a rate hike.
Beyond the Fed decision, geopolitics, key US data and big tech earnings may rock the index.
