NAS100 Balances Nvidia Miss and Rate Cut Bets

• NAS100 slips 0.7% but holds above its 21-day EMA
• Nvidia beats on EPS and revenue, but data-centre sales disappoint
• US500 down 0.5%, Dow barely positive
• Markets now see an 88% chance of a September Fed cut
• Friday’s PCE inflation report could decide the next leg

NAS100 Resilience Despite Tech Headwinds

The NAS100 held its ground on Wednesday, slipping 0.7% but finding support at the 21-day EMA. That resilience is notable, coming on a day when Nvidia’s mixed earnings report rattled tech sentiment. Bulls will take comfort in the index staying within reach of fresh all-time highs.

Nvidia Earnings: Mixed Signals for Tech

Nvidia once again topped expectations on revenue and EPS, but softer data-center sales grabbed headlines and weighed on the broader tech trade.

• Total revenue: $46.74B vs. ~$46.05–46.52B expected
• Adjusted EPS: $1.05 vs. $1.01 expected
• Data center: $41.1B vs. ~$41.3B expected

Shares slipped ~3% after hours, despite Q3 revenue guidance of $54B ±2% topping forecasts. The update also flagged paused H20 chip sales to China, reminding investors that geopolitics remain a risk factor.

What’s Next: Data and the Fed

Macro now takes center stage. With futures markets pricing an 88% chance of a 25bp September cut, upcoming U.S. data could prove pivotal.

• Thursday: Jobless claims (235K expected), GDP 2nd estimate (+2.8%), pending home sales (-0.6%).
• Friday: PCE inflation — headline 2.6% YoY expected, core 2.9%.

Potential Market Impact

Yesterday’s session highlighted NAS100’s resilience at the 21-day EMA, with traders betting heavily on Fed easing. 

Bloomberg data shows an 88% probability of a 25bp September cut.

Bullish Scenario

• A softer PCE print could reinforce rate-cut expectations, pushing NAS100 above 23,986.7 and into new all-time highs.

Bearish Scenario

• A hotter PCE print would dampen rate-cut odds, with downside targets at:
  • 23,412.74: 21-day EMA
  • 23,038.60: 50-day SMA
  • 22,670.1: Swing low from August 1

The NAS100 has proven resilient, holding key technical support even as Nvidia’s miss weighed on sentiment. With markets already pricing a September rate cut, Friday’s PCE data now stands as the make-or-break catalyst. A softer print could set the stage for fresh all-time highs — but a hotter reading risk snapping the index back toward support.

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