Alibaba earnings preview: Will strong results open path back to 2025 high?

• US-listed Alibaba shares ↑ 55% year-to-date

• Company to release fiscal Q4 earnings before US markets open Thursday, May 15th

• All eyes on AI/Cloud segment and tariff impact

• Alibaba share price forecasted to move 5.2% up/down post earnings 

• Wall Street 12-month target price is 25% away from current prices

Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba is set to release its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings before US markets open on Thursday, May 15th. 

US-listed shares of Alibaba are up over 55% year-to-date, backed by solid financial results and growing optimism over its AI and cloud businesses. However, it has been somewhat of a turbulent year for the stock thanks to the US-China trade drama. 

April saw Alibaba’s stocks fall roughly 35% from their 2025 high before recovering as trade tensions thawed. 

Prices are trading just over 10% away from the 2025 high of above $148 before the key earnings release. 

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Alibaba’s fiscal Q4 earnings: What to look out for?

Alibaba’s performance serves as a key indicator of consumer spending habits within China’s economy. 

Given the deflation situation in China, Alibaba’s results could offer fresh insight into its economic health. 

Market expectations…

Alibaba’s domestic (Taobao and Tmall Group) and international commerce businesses are expected to account for a major chunk of revenues. 

But investors will be paying close attention to the company’s expansion into A.I. 

• Revenue: forecasted at CNY 237.9 billion 

• Cloud Intelligence Group: forecasted at CNY 29.9 billion

• Gross margin: 36.6%

• Earnings per share (EPS): forecasted CNY 12.71

Key challenges 

• Intense domestic competition from rivals JD.com, PDD Holdings and AliExpress among others. 

• Higher US tariffs may impact domestic consumption and cloud computing costs, hitting revenues as a result. 

Are AI investments paying off?

On a brighter note, Alibaba confirmed a big AI deal with Apple back in February to use Alibaba’s Qwen 2.5 model in iPhones sold in China. 

The e-commerce giant’s expansion into AI will be closely scrutinized by investors, especially after recently releasing its Qwen 3 language model which can compete with competitors like OpenAI and Gemini. 

An expansion in the cloud intelligence group could boost confidence in Alibaba’s business outlook as it represents a key channel of growth in the future. 

How will Alibaba react to earnings?

Markets currently predict that Alibaba’s stock could move 5.2% up or down when US markets reopen on Thursday, May 15th. 

BULLISH: Should Alibaba’s past quarterly results and forward guidance boost confidence in its business outlook (especially in the AI space), this could push prices higher. 

Using Tuesday’s closing price of $131.73 as a reference point, a 5.2% climb would see this stock hit $138.58.

BEARISH: Should Alibaba announce disappointing results and express concerns around the impact of higher US tariffs on domestic consumption, prices may slip. 

A 5.2% decline from $131.73 may drag prices below the 50-day SMA at $124.90.

Over the next 12 months…

Wall Street analysts remain firmly bullish on this stock.

• 48 “Buy” calls
• 2 “Hold”
• 0 “Sells”

By this time next year, US-listed Alibaba shares are forecasted to have hit $164.73, representing a 25% upside from current prices!