Can Nvidia earnings push stock back towards record high?

• US$ 3.3 trillion AI giant to release earnings after US markets close today (Wed, May 28th)
   
• Nvidia shares soared as much from 58.6% from April lows, erased year-to-date losses
   
• World’s most valuable chipmaker’s earnings = global benchmark of future AI spending
   
• Nvidia caught in Trump’s AI chip curbs: Can Blackwell demand offset H20 challenges?
   
• Stock’s post-earnings, 1-day move predicted at 6.8% up/down Thursday
   
• Wall Street analysts’ pre-earnings 12-month forecast: 23.2% potential upside

 

Nvidia is set to unveil its Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings after US markets close today (Wed, May 28th).

Leading up to this highly-anticipated announcement, Nvidia’s stocks have seen a stunning rebound:

• skyrocketed as much as 58.6% (using intraday prices) from near one-year lows on April 7th
   
• wiped out all of its year-to-date declines as much as 35.5% (as of April 7th intraday low)
   
• now up 0.9% so far in 2025 (as of US market close Tuesday, May 28th)
   
• broken out of multi-month downtrend that persisted between early-Jan through early-May

Now, all eyes will be on the incoming earnings out of this 

US$3.3 trillion AI giant and the world’s most valuable chipmaker.

Key figures

(Nvidia’s earnings: fiscal Q1 2026 = three months ending 30 April 2025)

Here are some headline (adjusted) numbers to look out for:

• Revenue: US$ 43.3 billion – a record high.

Beyond that record high notional number, more importantly, markets are focused more on the revenue growth.

The forecasted US$ 43.4 billion for the past 3 months would “merely” mark a year-on-year (y/y) growth of 66.3%, which would also be the:

• slowest y/y revenue growth pace in 2 years (since fiscal Q1 2024 ending April 2023).
   
• 5th consecutive quarter of slowing y/y growth, since the 265.3% figure registered in fiscal Q4 2024 (3 months ending January 28th, 2024).

 

To be clear, Nvidia’s revenue is still expected to grow over the next 4 quarters, albeit at a slowing y/y pace, according to forecasts by Wall Street analysts:

• Q2FY26: 54.4%
   
• Q3FY26: 47.8%
   
• Q4FY26: 46.2%
   
• Q1FY27: 31.9%

Considering how much this stock has grown in recent years, and how seemingly insatiable Nvidia’s shareholders are …

Markets need to be satiated with even more stunning growth to restore Nvidia to record highs.

 

Here are more (adjusted) headline financial figures to look out for:

• Net income: forecasted at US$ 23.17 billion

53.5% net income margin – slimmest since Q3FY24 (3 months ending Oct 2023)

• Earnings per share (EPS): forecasted at US$ 0.88

43% y/y growth (Q1FY26 vs. Q1 FY25) – slowest since Q1FY24 (3 months ending April 2023)

 

Remember, financial figures are relative. 

Hence, it’s the pace of change between periods that matters more than the headline figure.

 

Trump’s AI chips export limitations: Can Nvidia’s Blackwell chips offset H20 curbs?

The Trump administration, as well as during the Biden administration, perceives AI chips and technology as central to US national interests, also a major channel for US foreign policy.

On April 16th, Nvidia revealed that President Trump’s barring of its H20 chips being sold to China is set to cost about US$ 5.5 billion in writedowns for Q1FY2026 (soon-to-be-reported fiscal quarter).

Nvidia’s 2026 sales are even expected to take a US$ 15 billion hit due to these H20 restrictions.

To be clear, Nvidia still enjoys strong demand for its main products, especially its Blackwell chips.

AI infrastructure was a headline-grabbing feature of President Trump’s recent trip to the Gulf, striking deals with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates which promises robust demand for Nvidia’s chips in the years ahead.

Also, Nvidia has already assured markets about its robust product pipeline through 2028.

Yet for the near-term, markets are eager for Nvidia’s take on whether the company can find a substitute product, perhaps by the second half of this year, for China’s data centre market.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang estimates China’s market to be worth US$50 billion in 2026.

In essence, Nvidia must navigate geopolitical crosscurrents and tariff risks, without taking too much of an earnings hit while also not running afoul of the Trump administration.

That’s a lot to digest overnight for investors, traders, and analysts worldwide.

 

Potential Post-Earnings Scenarios

Note that markets currently predict that Nvidia shares could move 6.8% up or down on Thursday, May 29th  – when US markets reopen after its earnings announcement.

• BULLISH: Should Nvidia unveil better-than-expected figures, while easing market fears about macro and tariff risks, a 6.8% upside move should launch its stock back above $144.00 for the first time since January (using extended hours prices shown in the chart above as the base).
   
• BEARISH: Should Nvidia unveil lower-than-expected financial figures, while unable to soothe market fears about macro and tariff risks, a 6.8% downside move should drag its stock closer to the $126.00 level, bringing the stock back into a negative year-to-date performance.

 

Over the next 12 months …

Wall Street analysts are still bullish on this stock’s prospects, with:

• 68 “buy” recommendation
   
• 9 “holds”
   
• 1 “sell” (by Seaport Global senior analyst Jay Goldberg)

Prior to this upcoming earnings release ...

Nvidia’s shares are predicted to have another 19.3% potential upside over the next 12 months, potentially breaching $161 by May 2026.

Of course, all those analysts’ forecasts and 12-month target price may change drastically in a few hours, depending on what Nvidia conveys to the world.

 

Nvidia earnings set to rock broader US stock markets

Nvidia’s earnings will be a major indicator of AI spending around the world, and whether it can be sustained in the face of heightened geopolitical and trade tensions.

And with a market cap of US$3.3 trillion, Nvidia’s sheer size may well impact equity markets worldwide, especially US stock indexes such as the:

• S&P 500 (tracked by FXTM’s US500 index)
   
• Nasdaq 100 (tracked by FXTM’s NAS100 index)

 

 

Earnings Nvidia AI Trump Geopolitical tensions Tariffs China