Caution was a key theme this week as investors monitored global trade developments. Markets were cautiously optimistic over US-Japan trade talks, the ECB cut interest rates for the seventh consecutive time, while gold touched a fresh all-time high.

President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are now in effect, including an astounding 104% tariff on Chinese goods. This could mean more chaos for markets that have been firmly gripped by uncertainty and mounting trade tensions.

Oil benchmarks have been climbing since last week after the Federal Reserve pointed to US rate cuts in 2024. Those gains have been extended by the recent disruptions to oil supplies via the Red Sea. Today's US crude stockpiles data could determine whether crude bulls can punch past a key downward trend line that's now acting as resistance, while noting that a "death cross" looms.

The Elliot Wave theory suggests there should be more near-term gains ahead for Crude oil.